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الخميس، 15 نوفمبر 2012

War game and calm: a continuous supply

War game and calm: a continuous supply
Once new clashes erupted between the Israeli occupation army and the resistance factions in the Gaza Strip, and the beginning was the Israeli shelling killed a Palestinian child, followed by a response from the "PRC" fired a missile against pocket Israeli injuring 4 soldiers, were wounded, one seriously, and so took place between the bombing and shelling in another wave of escalation, which requires one of two options: either to reach calm, or stay on the line of fire, including possibilities this entails expanding the Israeli aggression to an all-out war on the Gaza Strip.
Israel is interested in fire quiet on the front of the south, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu apparently is not interested in invading ground of Gaza may not be consequences appropriate to him during the next general election to be held in January next, especially if used movements "Hamas" and "Islamic Jihad" advanced missiles that have, where Israeli security authorities say: because they have missiles "dawn" with a range of up to 75 km can reach all areas in central and southern Israel. Such a scenario might affect the prestige and reputation of Netanyahu. And what is good for him that there will be some escalation and fire can be controlled, and in the framework of Israel claims that it imposed a cease-fire on the resistance factions in Gaza. And here it seems the need for more to Netanyahu's right-wing leader such as not subject to the "terror" Palestinian and can face without entering into negotiations with the other side.


It is unlikely that the resort Israeli government to apply what was said scenario before the ground operation, published by Israeli television, which includes the bombing of the headquarters of political and regulatory, and the bombing of homes and infrastructure, and assassinations, and electricity was cut, and the closure of the crossings, and limited ground operations. Because such steps inevitably lead to a strong reaction by the factions in Gaza and this in turn will lead to a major escalation war ends and wide and comprehensive. If Netanyahu is not interested in ground operation will not resort to the implementation of this scenario. And only in one case can go about a similar scenario, which is that you get a Palestinian lead to the deaths of a number of Israelis. Then Netanyahu may be forced under pressure from the street right to go about the process of rolling wide.
War and calm on the southern front of the game undesirable by the government in Israel, involving the movement "Hamas" ably, in Israel want the focus of public attention on external threats coming from behind the border, and this requires a lack of focus on other priorities concern people and fail the government in meeting such issues economic - social, and even the need for a political settlement. All that is needed is for revenge and respond with force against the enemy, and this task is not met by only leaders Whigs, led by Netanyahu. While "Hamas" They want to from time to time to remind people that they faction resistance, but does not want war or resistance operations could affect the survival of control on the Gaza Strip, or that affect and interests of Bkiedadtha and their desire to security and political stability and economic power is for those is a financial gain and "Prestige" political. The parties agree to maintain the red lines between them in this game. And now another Israeli party intervention on the line this game to electoral considerations and some pour oil on the fire and San intact Netanyahu wants to implicate in a war, or appearing in the site most to ensure the safety of the public.
Absent in the theme of escalation and confrontation on the southern front is the search for a radical solution to this situation, any conflict situation. Even those who want to reach a settlement with "Hamas" They want an interim solution based on a long-term truce in exchange for recognition authority "Hamas" and maintain the status quo. This practice can not be sustained for a period of many years old truce or agreement because the current situation in Gaza could not continue, if people rose up to elections, in order to end the division. Israel has also ignored the demands of the Palestinian people to freedom and independence. And therefore can not be any agreement to hold as long as the occupation exists. Nor can the resistance of the Palestinian people can crush any agreements not lived up to a lasting solution to the conflict.
And if it has been restored in the Gaza Strip for what will prevail in the West suffer from the settlement policy that swallow the earth and destroy the idea of ​​a two-state solution, and keep the room to take the measures of the occupation and patience. And things in the occupied West Bank on a high degree of tension not only a result of the practices occupation, but also because the national authority lost raison d'être under the agreement, "Oslo," which expired long ago, and even its normal function in the payment of salaries of their employees are unable them. There is an economic blockade against it as a result of the cessation of political negotiations with Israel, and this situation will worsen apparently go after the Palestinian leadership to the General Assembly of the United Nations to recognize Palestine's request a non-member state. Israel and the United States threaten to impose sanctions on the power, would make it more difficult economic conditions in the areas of power. And the current status quo bad and the next worst will make it possible collapse of power and the deterioration of security is possible and expected. And talk about the uprising and chaos seem realistic.
And it does not seem any temporary solution good for Israel's security and guarantee its stability and ability to live in this area naturally. Idea of ​​war give Israel time to escape from the benefits of political but aggravate the dangers that surround Israel, the war on Gaza in 2008 did not lead to more security, but the opposite is true. Any calm will only be home for days or months, not more. For Israel remains in the case fled even find themselves in front of a solution imposed by the powers of local and international, including geographic and demographic, there will be no escape from a single state, home to all Palestinians and Israelis wishing that whatever extended time and doubled the pain and suffering.

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